13 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focus of sharply conflicting claims about who, if anyone, controls it. A former US diplomat told The Hill that no single party holds total control, a statement that sits in direct tension with at least three other developments in the same nine-hour window: Trump asserted full US control per The Hill and Seeking Alpha, Iranian state media claimed the strait remains blocked and disputed those assertions, and Democracy Now reported that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal over control of the waterway. None of these claims are independently confirmed, and the site presents this picture as contested, not settled. On the physical picture, PortWatch logged 1 transit on 2026-08-09, against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day; that figure is four days old, as PortWatch publishes weekly on Tuesdays. Separately, port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides totalled 486 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a different measurement that cannot be equated with the PortWatch transit count. At 02:53 UTC, 421 vessels were holding position away from berth. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, easing over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band and is rising, driven by Polymarket escalation contracts. The two indices diverge in direction. Brent stood at $87.88, down 1.82% over 24 hours, as of 02:53 UTC.