13 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate under severe disruption, with no measurable recovery in transit flows. gCaptain reports that shipping traffic shows no sign of recovery, citing the latest trade data; that report has not been independently confirmed. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-08-09, recorded 1 transit against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day, a figure reflecting the multi-day lag inherent in weekly Tuesday publication. Separately, port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides totalled 565 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, under a different methodology and not comparable to the PortWatch count. At 23:53 UTC, 372 vessels were holding position away from berth, excluding any ships within 25 kilometres of a working port. Iranian state media, via IRNA, claim that no vessel can safely transit the waterway without Iran's authorization; that claim is not independently confirmed and the US has disputed it. A major salvage operation is under way for the grounded shadow-fleet tanker Caroline Bezengi off Oman, per gCaptain. Brent stood at $86.98, down 1.55% over 24 hours, as of 23:53 UTC. The Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band and is easing, with Polymarket escalation contracts as the top driver, a divergence that signals sustained operational stress even as near-term risk pricing softens.