28 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. PortWatch recorded 3 transits on 2026-08-23, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 530 in the most recent 24 hours, though that figure counts port-area entry events and is not comparable to transit counts. Brent stood at $89.18, up 2.00% over 24 hours, as of 02:53 UTC. The WSJ reports oil is edging higher on fading hopes for the strait's reopening. The dominant development of the past nine hours is Iran's stated intention to set conditions before any reopening: Al Jazeera and The Straits Times each carry the story independently, and Reuters reports that top security official Rezaei has announced those conditions are being prepared. A separate claim, relayed by TRT World and originating with Iranian state media, says Iran is drawing up a formal list of demands; that is one claim from one origin, not independent reporting. Arab News reports, without independent corroboration, that a Kuwaiti tanker was hit in a Hormuz shipping attack. Hellenic Shipping News, also unverified, reports Houthi threats are forcing Saudi crude to reroute, extending Asia transit times and costs. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite is in the extreme band and rising, with physical transit deviation as the top driver; the Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band but is easing, led by Polymarket escalation contract pricing. The two composites are pointing in opposite directions, a divergence this site will track through the day.

Recorded