31 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the sharpest military exchange in weeks. US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers in or near the strait, and Iran responded with missile fire on airbases in Jordan, according to India Today, AP News, Axios, and The Guardian. A tanker was separately hit by a mystery projectile while entering the strait, per TradeWinds News. The physical picture on the water is severely disrupted: PortWatch's most recently published day, 2026-08-23, recorded 3 transits through the strait, while the pre-crisis baseline stood at 85 per day. As of 02:53 UTC, 341 vessels were holding position away from berth, a figure that excludes hulls within 25 kilometers of a working port. Brent crude was at $90.51, up 2.74% over the prior 24 hours, as of 02:53 UTC; WTI stood at $85.46. The Hormuz Index state composite remains in the extreme band, though it eased over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor. The forecast composite sits in the elevated band and is rising, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the leading driver. The two composites diverge: a slight reduction in immediate pressure does not align with a forward signal that continues to worsen. Forty events were indexed in the past 24 hours. The operational and geopolitical picture warrants close monitoring of overnight maritime communications and any US Central Command statement.

Recorded