1 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is under acute operational pressure following a new wave of US military strikes. Reuters reports the US launched a fresh barrage against Iranian targets around the strait; gCaptain, ABC News, and KTXS carry the same story. The New York Times separately reports that two more oil tankers were attacked in the strait. Iranian state media, via IRNA, claims the IRGC has begun a retaliatory response and that US strikes only tighten its grip on the strait; that claim originates with Tehran and has not been corroborated by independent sources. Brent crude stood at $95.17, up +4.78% over the prior 24 hours as of 23:56 UTC, with WTI at $90.71. The site logged 40 indexed events in the last 24 hours. PortWatch recorded 3 transits on 2026-08-23, its most recent published day, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 transits per day; the multi-day lag is standard for PortWatch's Tuesday publication cycle. As of 23:56 UTC, 481 vessels were holding position away from berth. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, rising over 24 hours, with war-risk insurance driving the reading as a single-component override. The Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, also rising, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the top contributor; the two composites diverge by band and measure distinct dynamics.

Recorded