2 September 2026.

Situation

Operational conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have deteriorated sharply. Reuters reports U.S. forces launched a new barrage of strikes on Iran around the strait; gCaptain and the New York Times separately report that two oil tankers were attacked in the same period. The IRGC, per Iranian state media, claims its forces have initiated a retaliatory response and that U.S. strikes only serve to tighten its grip on the strait; that claim has not been independently confirmed. At 02:56 UTC, 505 vessels were holding position away from berth, a figure that excludes hulls within 25 km of a working port. On 2026-08-23, PortWatch recorded 3 transits, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 transits per day; a multi-day lag is normal given the weekly Tuesday publication schedule. Brent crude stood at $95.54, up +4.85% over the prior 24 hours, as of 02:56 UTC; WTI was at $90.92. The site's Hormuz Crisis Pressure index is in the extreme band and rising over 24 hours, driven by a war-risk insurance override; other composite inputs did not move the published number. The Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band and is also rising, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the top contributor. The two indices diverge in what they measure: state pressure and forward expectation are not tracking identically, and the gap is worth watching as events develop.