4 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate far below pre-crisis norms. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-08-30, logged 6 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; that figure carries a multi-day lag, as PortWatch publishes weekly on Tuesdays. gCaptain reports that Gulf shipping traffic via Hormuz remains below its 10-day average, with preliminary data showing four commodity vessels transiting on Thursday, down from nine the day prior. As of 14:56 UTC, 319 vessels were holding position away from berth, a count that excludes hulls within 25 km of a working port. This site's Crisis Pressure index sits in the extreme band and the Escalation Forecast in the elevated band; both are easing over the prior 24 hours, with physical transit deviation driving the state reading and the Brent-WTI forward spread the leading contributor to the forecast. Those two indices measure different things and their readings do not align. Brent stood at $94.90, down 1.29% over the prior 24 hours, as of 14:56 UTC. The dominant policy development is South Korea's reported preparation for a naval support mission: gCaptain and The Korea Times both carry the story, citing local media, with a P-8A maritime patrol aircraft and a support ship listed among options. No deployment decision has been announced. gCaptain and Reuters separately report ADNOC continues loading LNG tankers in the Gulf.