7 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is carrying its lightest commodity traffic since May, according to Reuters and CGTN, which both cite a Kpler 10-day moving average following reported strikes on vessels by US and Iranian forces. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-08-30, recorded 6 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; that figure is now 8 days old, reflecting PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. The physical transit picture is contested: unverified, single-source reporting describes a full closure declaration with non-compliant ships to be banned, while the US denies that Iran struck an uncrewed US military ship in the strait, a counter-claim that leaves the operational status of the waterway disputed rather than settled. Iran has separately announced, through multiple unverified single-source outlets, plans for a new restricted maritime zone near the strait, with sanctions threatened against vessels entering it. At 02:56 UTC, 397 hulls were holding position away from berth. Brent was trading at $96.28, flat over the prior 24 hours (+0.00%). The Hormuz Index state composite sits in the extreme band, easing over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor. The forecast composite reads elevated, also easing, with the Brent-WTI forward spread the leading driver; the two composites diverge by band and measure different things, so the easing signals are not equivalent.