15 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of an intensifying maritime crisis, with BBC reporting two sailors missing after a tanker attack and gCaptain and MarineLink reporting that the Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia, attacked earlier this period, is being towed to an Omani port after a fire in its engine room was brought under control, with two crew members still unaccounted for. Al Jazeera carries CENTCOM's dispute of the IRGC claim that El Gaia struck naval mines; the attacker and mechanism remain contested. Per Axios, the US military destroyed two Iranian boats after what it described as a drone seizure attempt near Hormuz. Tehran Times claims Iran downed a third US MQ-1 drone in 24 hours, a figure no major wire in this feed independently carries. Rudaw reports a vessel was targeted by an unknown projectile in the strait, and Fox News carries a headline of another vessel struck. Hellenic Shipping News reports crude tanker rates have broken to fresh highs as risk escalates, citing roughly 24 successful strikes over the past two weeks. Reuters reports Houthis have struck Saudi targets anew as talks over the strait stall. IMF PortWatch recorded 8 transits on 2026-09-13, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $108.46, up 1.93% over 24 hours, as of 23:48 UTC. The site has recorded 79 indexed events in the last 24 hours. As of 23:49 UTC, 410 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.

Recorded