18 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of an intensifying maritime crisis. gCaptain reports three tanker attacks have hit the strait as Saudi Arabia is being forced to send more oil back through the waterway, a development that compounds an already acute chokepoint risk. Middle East Eye reports UKMTO says a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait; Hellenic Shipping News carries the same UKMTO finding. The attacker has not been independently identified. Per Iranian state media, the IRGC struck the Togo-flagged tanker Trend after what Tehran described as an illegal passage attempt; that incident was first carried by this feed on 2026-09-17 and is not a new attack. Separately, gCaptain reports a seafarer death toll is rising from fresh strikes, and Washington Times reports a tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile. Al Jazeera reports Trump says he faces a 'big decision' on Iran, adding that 'anything could happen'. Brent stood at $103.21, down 0.85% over 24 hours, as of 23:40 UTC; futures markets are closed and that figure is unchanged since the prior close. IMF PortWatch recorded 8 transits on 2026-09-13, a fraction of the pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. 102 events have been indexed in the last 24 hours. As of 23:49 UTC, 477 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, easing over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, easing over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.

Recorded