20 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to routine commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 8 transits on 2026-09-13, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; that figure is now seven days old, as PortWatch publishes weekly on Tuesdays. Thirty indexed events entered the feed in the past 24 hours, spanning strikes, ship incidents, and competing closure narratives. On the military throughput dispute, Iran's senior military spokesman, per Mehr News (Tehran state media, treated as a claim), dismissed CENTCOM's assertion that US forces facilitated the passage of over one billion barrels of oil through the strait as fabricated. The Times of India reports US surveillance drone losses in Iranian attacks near the strait, though that report is unverified and single-source. The Manila Times reports Iran struck an oil tanker in the strait, also unverified and single-source. Central Oregon Daily and Yahoo both report ships have been attacked in the strait as gas and diesel prices rise. The 19FortyFive piece characterizing the crisis as worsening toward effective closure, already noted in yesterday's brief, remains unconfirmed by any additional source in this feed. Brent stood at $103.87 as of 02:46 UTC, down 0.21% over the prior 24 hours; futures markets are closed and that figure reflects the pre-close level. WTI was quoted at $100.30. As of 02:49 UTC, 429 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.