20 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 2 transits on October 11 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. The Maritime Executive reports a tug was attacked near the strait in the most recent development in this feed; the report carries no independent confirmation at this time. The Guardian reports at least 15 ships have been attacked and that the waterway is being scoured for spilt cargo from struck container ships. Separately, Hellenic Shipping News reports Iran's Revolutionary Guards said an oil tanker caught fire after hitting a mine in the strait, with no major wire in this feed carrying that claim independently; ChemAnalyst and Muslim Network TV carry related headlines attributing the same account to Iran's Guards. gCaptain reports Iran's main oil-loading terminals have remained empty for weeks, consistent with a continuing US naval blockade throttling Tehran's exports. Brent crude stood at $109.06, up 0.57% over 24 hours, as of 00:12 UTC. The feed indexed 42 headlines in the last 24 hours. As of 00:22 UTC, 130 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.