25 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 4 transits on October 18 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent settled at $116.72 at Friday's close, up 3.14% in that session. The sharpest new operational development is a Houthi missile offensive: Al Jazeera reports strikes on targets in Yemen including Aden's airport and a coastguard base, as well as on Saudi Arabia, though the report is not independently confirmed. In the strait itself, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims two supertankers struck naval mines; Rudaw carries the claim under the headline 'Two supertankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz: IRGC,' and WANA News Agency and Pars Today carry related versions. Separately, Al Jazeera reports an oil slick visible off the UAE coast, linked to a vessel that reportedly struck a naval mine in early October, reported on October 24, prompting beach closures. On the diplomatic track, Iranian media, relayed by ANI News, deny that Tehran made any offer to the United States or sent a proposal through a Pakistan mediator on reopening the strait; no talks involving named parties on both sides are reported in this window. ABC News notes growing concern that a prolonged closure could affect prices for helium, fertilizer and other goods beyond crude oil. As of 00:22 UTC, 128 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.