29 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 2 transits on October 25 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Kurdistan24, a single unverified source, separately reports Araghchi discussing that same seven-day plan; that report does not constitute a second source for the Al Jazeera account. Middle East Eye, also a single unverified source, reports Erdogan told Trump that Turkey is making diplomatic efforts regarding the strait and Yemen. An Informat.ro report, unverified and single-source, says Gulf states are negotiating a regional agreement covering the strait, Yemen and Iran's nuclear program; no second source carries that claim. Brent stood at $114.34 as of 00:11 UTC, up 0.26% over 24 hours, with WTI at $101.99. Sea News, a single unverified source, reports that 3,000 commercial vessels have transited the strait and that Iran's Gulf strait authority has called out tanker owner Sinokor for violations; that vessel-count figure is Sea News's own and is not corroborated. Eight headlines have been indexed in the last 24 hours; several rows cover the same stories. The feed carries no new independently sourced ship-attack report this window beyond what the site's situation summary already reflects. As of 00:22 UTC, 35 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.