2 November 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 2 transits on October 25 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. The dominant operational story in this window is a claim by Iran's Revolutionary Guard that two tankers struck naval mines in the strait; Trend News Agency, ANI News, news.sbs.co.kr, Arab News and The Star carry the claim, which originates with the Revolutionary Guard and has not been confirmed by any maritime authority. Separately, The Maritime Executive reports an offshore tug was hit in what it calls the latest attack in the strait. A vessel strike by an unknown projectile, reported by UKMTO on November 1 and carried by Anadolu Ajansı. The feed indexed 38 headlines in the past 24 hours. Brent stood at $111.84, down 1.40% over 24 hours, as of 00:10 UTC. As of 23:59 UTC, 122 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.