7 November 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 2 transits on October 25 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Iran's navy claims a tanker caught fire after striking a sea mine east of the strait while sailing through what it called a prohibited and unsafe zone, per IRNA; Middle East Eye, The Times of Israel, and Apa.az carry the claim, which originates with Iranian state media. No maritime authority has confirmed it. Separately, MarineLink reports one seafarer was killed in a suspected missile attack on an oil products tanker in the Gulf, identified as the Marshall Islands-flagged MT Velos Sapphire, which was sailing unladen toward Bahrain when it was hit. On the diplomatic track, The Guardian reports Qatar has put forward a plan under which the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as part of an arrangement to end the US-Iran war. Free Malaysia Today reports Iran says the strait will stay closed until the US accepts its terms. Rudaw reports an IRGC militiaman was killed in the strait as Trump confirmed fresh US strikes on Iran, and Khaama Press reports Trump says the strait is reopening as the US confirms new strikes. Brent settled at $98.32, up 0.03% in the last session before the close, and WTI stood at $90.83. Forty-three headlines were indexed in the past 24 hours across the feed. As of 14:30 UTC, 131 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, flagged low-confidence because two of its inputs are stale or missing (physical transit deviation and war-risk insurance), moving toward the 70 that oil-market dread sets alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.