11 November 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe operational stress. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims two oil tankers caught fire after explosions in the strait, a claim carried by 17 outlets including NDTV and safety4sea; no maritime authority has confirmed it. UKMTO has reported a tanker incident in the strait, carried by outlets including Middle East Eye and Anadolu Ajansı. Iran's position on reopening has not shifted: Iran is urging the US to meet conditions for reopening the strait. The physical transit picture stays contested. Iran says the strait will remain closed unless the US meets demands, while other reporting indicates ships are still attempting transits despite ongoing fire. IMF PortWatch recorded 3 transits on November 8, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $92.25, up 0.39% over 24 hours, as of 05:43 UTC. Iraq's foreign minister discussed the closure and global energy security at the Paris Peace Forum, per Kurdistan24, though that report is single-source and not independently confirmed. Sixty-one headlines have been indexed in the last 24 hours. As of 05:30 UTC, 47 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.