12 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz sits at a potential inflection point: U.S. and Iranian officials have signaled, per gCaptain, that a deal to end months of war and reopen the waterway could be signed within days, with both sides described as having agreed on a text. That diplomatic signal has not yet translated into measurable throughput. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-06-07, recorded just 2 transits through the strait against a pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day, a figure that reflects the waterway's near-paralysis even as scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports reached 364 vessels, a separate count using different methodology that captures broader regional port activity rather than strait passage specifically. Vessels anchored or stopped number 451, consistent with continued operational hesitation across the region. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; the 30-day Escalation Forecast stands at 68 (high), with Kalshi forward contracts as the leading driver, a divergence that suggests markets are beginning to price in resolution even as present conditions remain severely disrupted. Brent fell 1.98% to $86.71 in the past 24 hours, reflecting cautious optimism. Iranian state media simultaneously claims full armed-forces control of both shores and has confirmed at least one vessel was barred from transit without authorization, a posture that shipowners, per gCaptain, are watching carefully ahead of any reopening.