12 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under formal Iranian authorization requirements, with Iranian state media reporting that armed forces intercepted a vessel attempting unauthorized passage on Friday and separately affirming that no ship may enter the waterway without Tehran's approval. Physical conditions reflect that control: PortWatch's most recently published day of data, 2026-06-07, recorded only 2 transits through the strait, a fraction of the pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day, though that figure carries a multi-day lag inherent to PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports registered 292 vessels, a distinct measure using different methodology that should not be read against the PortWatch count. Some 462 vessels remain anchored or stopped in the region. Against that physical backdrop, Brent crude fell 3.63% in the past 24 hours to $89.31, a move consistent with markets repricing diplomatic progress: senior officials cited by gCaptain say Washington and Tehran are edging toward an interim deal that could be signed on the sidelines of next week's G7 summit. The divergence between the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure score of 94 (extreme, the state composite) and the 30-day Escalation Forecast of 68 (high) is analytically significant; present conditions remain extreme even as the forward outlook moderates. Complicating the diplomatic picture, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned, per Iranian state media, that recent US strikes have rendered the ceasefire situation ineffective, and India summoned the US Chargé d'Affaires multiple times following what Indian outlets and unconfirmed reports describe as strikes involving Indian seafarers and vessels in the Gulf of Oman.