13 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under acute operational stress, with the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite fixed at 94 (extreme) for a second consecutive day, driven chiefly by physical transit deviation. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-06-07, recorded just 2 transits through the strait against a pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports stand separately at 160 vessels under a different methodology, and 204 vessels remain anchored or stopped in the region. A tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near the strait overnight, per gCaptain, raising fresh scrutiny of a covert US-coordinated shipping corridor. Separately, a US naval strike killed three Indian mariners, prompting External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to lodge a formal protest with Secretary Rubio, calling the lethal action unjustified, per multiple Indian outlets. Washington responded by warning India against violating the Hormuz blockade, per Rediff. Against that friction, Brent crude rose a modest +0.72% over 24 hours to $87.33, suggesting markets are partly pricing in diplomatic progress: Pakistan's prime minister announced a potential Iran-US deal within 24 hours, per Mehr News, and Trump separately claimed a nuclear agreement could be signed as early as Sunday. The 30-day Escalation Forecast at 68 (high), anchored by Kalshi forward contracts, reflects genuine uncertainty about whether diplomacy or further military escalation prevails.