13 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains operationally disrupted even as diplomacy accelerates: the BBC, DW, and Times of India all confirm US forces intercepted Iranian drones targeting vessels in the waterway while Washington and Tehran simultaneously reported progress toward an interim deal. Iran has warned, per AzerNews, that no commercial ships may transit without Iranian permission, a claim that directly explains the collapse in through-traffic. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-06-07, recorded just 2 transits through the strait, a figure that stands against the pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day; that count is now six days old given PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Separately, scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 429 vessels, a figure that reflects a different methodology and geographic scope and should not be read as strait-transit volume. Some 494 vessels are currently anchored or stopped in the region, and 36 indexed events were recorded in the past 24 hours. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged in 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the lead driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 68 (high), also unchanged, with Kalshi forward contracts as the top contributor; the gap between a present-conditions score of 94 and a forward-looking score of 68 reflects market pricing of deal probability rather than any easing of current physical conditions. Brent fell just 0.06% to $87.33, a muted move that suggests traders are treating drone intercepts as containable provided the diplomatic track holds.