24 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the fulcrum of a genuinely contested operational picture. Iranian state media and the IRGC maintain the strait is closed to Israeli-flagged vessels, with Iran citing tightened control measures; the US Energy Secretary and CENTCOM counter that the closure declaration lacks physical effect, describing oil flows as close to normal and asserting Washington has ended Iran's ability to shut the waterway unilaterally. The site's own carrier-posture verdict leans cautious 'closed,' but the physical transit data resists a clean reading: PortWatch's most recently published day, 2026-06-21, recorded 5 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 93 per day, while a separate independent scraper logged 359 arrivals at Gulf ports in the most recent 24 hours using a different methodology; the two figures are not directly comparable. Brent dropped 4.66% over the past 24 hours, with Reuters and Finimize attributing the move to tankers clearing the strait and markets beginning to price near-term oversupply. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 90, rated extreme, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite, a distinct forward-looking measure, stands at 69, rated high, and rose 7 points in 24 hours driven by Polymarket closure odds, a divergence from current-state readings that traders should not paper over. A US-Iran ceasefire framework is being reported by Kurdistan24, but Supply Chain Dive notes shipping recovery remains some way off regardless of diplomatic progress. 636 vessels are currently anchored or stopped in the region.