25 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the contested center of global energy risk, with the physical transit picture deeply unclear and politically charged. Iranian authorities, per IRGC statements carried by WION and Iranian state media, have re-declared the strait subject to their routing authority, warning that vessels deviating from Tehran-cleared corridors will face consequences. The US disputes any meaningful closure: Trump stated that Iran is accepting American demands and rejecting proposed shipping fees, and US officials have cited continued vessel transits as evidence the strait has not been sealed, per The Statesman. The site's own carrier-posture verdict remains a cautious closed, but the physical evidence is contested. PortWatch's most recently published data, covering 2026-06-21, recorded 5 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 93 per day, a near-total collapse in IMF-tracked throughput. Separately, an independent Gulf-port scraper recorded 388 arrivals in the most recent 24-hour window, a figure that reflects different methodology and scope and cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch number. With 623 vessels still anchored or stopped and 36 indexed events in the past 24 hours, operational pressure remains severe. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 90, rated extreme, with physical transit deviation as the top driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 68, rated high, up 7 points, led by Polymarket closure-odds signals. Those two readings diverge meaningfully: present conditions are extreme while the forward outlook, though elevated, reflects some market expectation of partial normalization. Brent's 4.97% drop underscores that expectation.