25 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz deteriorated sharply on Thursday as a merchant vessel attack off Oman prompted the International Maritime Organization to suspend its coordinated evacuation operation for ships trapped in the Persian Gulf, per gCaptain. The suspension removes the principal multilateral safety mechanism underpinning any controlled drawdown of the backlog. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite stands at 90 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; separately, the 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 64 (high), down 5 points, driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds. The divergence between those two readings reflects a market pricing in some eventual resolution while operational conditions on the water remain at crisis levels. PortWatch's most recently published transit figure, recorded on 2026-06-21, logged 5 vessels transiting the strait against a pre-crisis baseline of 93 per day. In contrast, scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports registered 394 vessels, a figure that captures a different population and methodology and should not be read as equivalent. Brent crude responded to the deterioration, gaining +2.67% to $75.06. On the diplomatic front, internal Republican discord over Iran policy is complicating U.S. Secretary of State efforts to secure Gulf-ally buy-in for a prospective deal, per Reuters, leaving the policy track as uncertain as the physical one.

Recorded