1 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is operationally reopening after its crisis closure, with transit gradually accelerating according to Anadolu Ajansı, yet the structural damage is far from resolved. PortWatch data for 2026-06-28, the most recently published day available under its weekly Tuesday release cycle, recorded just 27 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 84 per day, illustrating how severely throughput remains suppressed relative to normal levels. Separately, a scraper-derived 24-hour count of Gulf-port arrivals reached 448 vessels, though that figure uses a different methodology and scope than PortWatch and should not be read as a transit-count equivalent. Oil markets responded to the reopening signal: Brent shed 2.95% to $71.18, with WTI settling at $67.99. Even so, the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 89 (extreme), down just one point in 24 hours, with physical transit deviation remaining the top contributor. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 59 (elevated), four points lower on the day and driven primarily by Polymarket closure-odds shifts; that forecast and the current-state reading diverge meaningfully, signaling that markets price a calmer trajectory ahead even as present operational stress remains extreme. A foreign container ship ran aground after Iran reportedly rejected its proposed route, per Eurasia Review and NewsCord, and Iranian state media is defending tightened shipping controls, adding friction to what diplomats in Doha could not resolve.