2 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of a deepening standoff, with Iranian state media and the IRGC declaring the strait closed and threatening a 'forceful response' to tankers using unapproved routes, per AP News and Sky News Australia. The US and CENTCOM dispute that characterization, reporting vessels continue to transit and asserting no evidence of a complete closure; the physical picture is therefore contested. IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-06-28, recorded 27 transits, against a pre-crisis baseline of 84 per day. That figure carries a multi-day lag, as PortWatch publishes weekly on Tuesdays. Separately, an independent Gulf-port scraper recorded 417 arrivals at Gulf ports in the most recent 24-hour window, a distinct methodology that cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch count. Some 499 vessels remain anchored or stopped in the region. A BBC team visiting the strait observed seized ships and stranded tankers, per their own reporting, while a fragile ceasefire remains in place. Saudi Arabia has ramped up oil shipments since a US-Iran deal, per CNBC. Brent crude is trading at $71.57, up 0.55 percent over 24 hours, a modest move that suggests markets are pricing in some risk premium without panicking. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure reads 86 (extreme), its top contributor being physical transit deviation, while the 30-day Escalation Forecast registers 58 (elevated), driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds; the gap between those two figures signals that present disruption is acute but markets do not yet expect a prolonged structural rupture.

Recorded