3 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate well below normal capacity: PortWatch's most recently published day of data (2026-06-28) recorded just 27 transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 84 per day, a throughput deficit that remains the top contributor to the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure score of 84 (extreme). Separately, scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 402 vessels, a figure that reflects a different methodology and scope than the PortWatch strait-transit count and should not be read as equivalent. The 66 vessels currently anchored or stopped signal continued operational disruption for shipping and insurance underwriters pricing war-risk premiums. Against that backdrop, Brent crude rose +0.78% to $72.13, a modest gain consistent with a market that has largely priced in chronic restriction rather than acute shock. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 58 (elevated), one point higher than yesterday, with Polymarket closure-probability odds as the leading driver; the gap between that forward-looking 58 and the present-conditions score of 84 reflects a market expectation that physical pressure eases over the next month even as today's disruption remains severe. On the policy front, Iran has opened talks with Japanese companies under a U.S. sanctions waiver to resume oil sales, though prospective buyers are pressing for a longer waiver duration and explicit reassurances about vessel safety, according to gCaptain.

Recorded