3 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate at severely compressed throughput, with PortWatch's most recently published figure showing 27 transits on 2026-06-28, a fraction of the 84-per-day pre-crisis baseline. That figure carries a multi-day lag inherent to PortWatch's Tuesday publication cycle; separately, scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports reached 402 vessels, a distinct metric covering a broader set of port calls rather than strait transits directly. The 564 vessels currently anchored or stopped across the region underscore the backlog building in surrounding waters. Against that operational backdrop, Brent crude gained 0.74% over the past 24 hours to $72.13, a modest move that reflects traders balancing near-term supply anxiety against the restraint visible in the 30-day Escalation Forecast composite, which sits at 58 (elevated), unchanged on the day and pointing to a moderately, not acutely, deteriorating outlook over the coming month. The divergence between the state composite of 84 (extreme) and that forward-looking 58 is editorially significant: present conditions are stressed well beyond normal, but the forward signal has not broken into extreme territory. On the policy front, Iran has opened talks with Japanese companies under a U.S. sanctions waiver permitting resumed oil sales, though prospective buyers are pressing for a longer waiver period and explicit guarantees on vessel safety, per gCaptain. Shipping and insurance desks should treat that uncertainty as a live variable in route planning.

Recorded