4 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate well below normal capacity. PortWatch's most recently published day, 2026-06-28, recorded 27 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 84 per day. Separately, an independent scraper of Gulf-port arrivals logged 387 vessel arrivals in the most recent 24 hours; that figure reflects a different methodology and geographic scope and cannot be compared directly to the PortWatch number. Anchored or stopped vessels number 577, consistent with widespread holding patterns. Tehran's Mehr News Agency reported Saturday that maritime tracking data showed ships altering routes or abandoning the Omani shipping corridor as IRGC naval forces operated in the strait. The human cost to commercial shipping compounds: Reuters reports, via gCaptain, that a CMA CGM container ship struck by a missile in the strait in early May is so badly damaged the company is considering sending it for scrapping. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 84 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the leading contributor. The 30-day escalation forecast stands at 61 (high), up one point, driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds. Those two readings diverge deliberately: current conditions are extreme while the forward view remains at high, not extreme, suggesting markets are not yet pricing a further step-change. On price, the Brent quote is unchanged at $72.13 since the July 3 brief; no new market print has been produced.

Recorded