6 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate well below pre-crisis norms: PortWatch's most recent published day (2026-06-28) showed 27 transits against a baseline of 84 per day, a figure that carries the expected multi-day lag given PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Separately, scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports totalled 346 vessels, reflecting a broader regional count under a different methodology and not directly comparable to the PortWatch number. Fifty-six vessels remain anchored or stopped in the region, and 34 events were indexed in the past 24 hours. On pricing, Brent crude stands at $72.13 and WTI at $68.66; there is no new 24-hour price print to analyze. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure state composite sits at 87 (extreme), with event pressure as its dominant driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite, a distinct forward-looking measure, reads 66 (high), up 4 points, led by Polymarket closure odds; the gap between current-state and forecast readings reflects genuine analytical divergence rather than a data anomaly. Against this backdrop, China's submarine-launched ballistic missile test and the commencement of Sino-Russian naval exercises, reported by USNI News, add a broader strategic layer: any escalation in the Western Pacific or Persian Gulf theater now carries cross-domain signaling risk that shipping and insurance desks cannot price in isolation. The IMO Council has opened its 137th session with Hormuz security on the agenda, per gCaptain, underscoring the issue's institutional urgency.