7 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz has entered its most acute phase of the crisis: U.S. Central Command conducted what multiple sources describe as 'powerful' and renewed strikes against Iran in direct response to tanker attacks, with Saudi and Qatari vessels among those hit, per Al Jazeera. Iran has warned of 'decisive' action in response, per NDTV, and the U.S. has separately revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver, per Scripps News. The U.S. Navy also reports that Iran has been mining the strait to funnel commercial shipping into Iranian-controlled lanes where tolls can be extracted, per gCaptain. Against that backdrop, Brent crude has climbed +5.70% in 24 hours to $76.24, reflecting acute supply-route anxiety. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite stands at 90 (extreme), driven primarily by event pressure, with 40 indexed events logged in the past 24 hours and 454 vessels anchored or stopped in the region. The 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 65 (high) but has ticked down 2 points, a divergence from the present-conditions reading that reflects Polymarket closure-odds data pulling the outlook slightly lower even as current pressure intensifies. Transit throughput data reinforces the operational squeeze: PortWatch's most recent published figure, covering 2026-07-05, recorded 34 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 83 per day; separately, a scraper-derived 24-hour Gulf-port arrivals count shows 336 vessel arrivals, measured on a different methodology and not directly comparable to the PortWatch figure.

Recorded