11 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe operational stress: 417 vessels are currently anchored or stopped, and PortWatch's most recent published day (2026-07-05) recorded just 34 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. Scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports stand at 369, a figure that reflects different methodology and scope than the PortWatch count and should not be read as contradicting it. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite holds at 87 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with war-risk insurance premiums the single largest driver; the 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 61 (high), also flat, with Polymarket closure-odds contracts the dominant signal. The divergence between those two readings suggests markets price meaningful near-term risk without yet pricing an acute breakout. Brent crude barely moved, settling at $76.01 on a 24-hour change of +0.01%, consistent with traders treating current disruption as already embedded in price. On the diplomatic track, Iran and Oman confirmed Saturday they will continue technical talks on Hormuz navigation, per IRNA. Separately, Iranian state media Mehr News reports a senior Ansarallah official declared the group capable of breaking what he called a Saudi-led blockade, adding a Yemeni vector to regional shipping risk. Twenty-one indexed events were recorded in the past 24 hours, sustaining an elevated tempo of incidents and rhetoric across the broader Gulf corridor.