10 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed as the crisis enters a new phase, with the threat envelope now potentially widening to a second chokepoint. A single source reports that a Yemen envoy has warned of a broader conflict, with Houthis threatening Bab al-Mandeb Strait; that claim is not independently confirmed in this feed but warrants close tracking given the operational implications for Red Sea routing. On the Hormuz front, The Economic Times, ABS-CBN, Modern Ghana, and The Straits Times report that Iran has struck ships and expanded a no-go zone beyond the strait itself, with no major wire in this feed carrying those claims. The Hill reports separately that the U.S. destroyed five Iranian tankers and that Iran retaliated by targeting 10 ships near the strait. Hellenic Shipping News reports that LNG exporters, including Qatar and UAE operators, have begun moving cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers as a workaround, though volumes remain far below pre-crisis levels. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast composite is in the elevated band and rising, with the Brent-WTI forward spread the top driver. Those two readings diverge: state pressure is flat while the forward-looking forecast is climbing. PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 2026-09-06 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Separately, 378 vessels were holding position away from berth as of 02:56 UTC.