11 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz closure picture remains actively contested. Iranian media declared the strait closed, while Reuters and gCaptain report that IMF PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 2026-09-06, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; that PortWatch figure carries a multi-day lag, as the agency publishes weekly on Tuesdays. Separately, our AIS tracking shows 451 vessels holding position away from berth as of 23:56 UTC. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, also flat, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the top contributor. The two composites diverge by band, reflecting a gap between current operational stress and the forward risk picture. Brent stood at $104.42, down 3.20% over 24 hours as of 23:56 UTC; futures markets are closed and that delta is carried forward from the pre-close session, not a live signal. Al Jazeera, BBC News, USNI News, and ABC News report the Houthi advance in Yemen carries strategic implications beyond the Red Sea; separately, Houthi forces have reached Perim Island at the mouth of Bab el-Mandeb, per gCaptain and BBC News. TradeWinds reports Saudi Arabia has shut a damaged pipeline that had provided an alternative export route bypassing the strait. AP News reports that Gulf states and Iran are weighing talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz; both parties are named in that reporting. Marine Insight, Seatrade Maritime News, and other outlets report two vessels were struck by unknown projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, per UKMTO. Anthropic says an Iran-linked actor used its Claude models to compile U.S. Navy targeting data, per gCaptain.

Recorded