12 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial throughput: IMF PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 2026-09-06, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day, and 448 vessels were holding position away from berth as of 23:56 UTC. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band and is easing, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor. Those two readings diverge, signalling that structural disruption persists even as forward-looking indicators soften. On the diplomatic front, Caliber.Az, Apa.az, and timesdaily.com report that Iran has formally handed Washington a list of conditions for reopening the strait, no major wire in this feed carries the story. The Guardian and Reuters separately report that Iran and Oman have reached a final agreement on a Hormuz shipping route, while Iranian state media, per Tasnim, say the Iran-Oman understanding does not provide for an immediate reopening. AzerNews, UA.NEWS, Britannica, and USA Today report that Iran and Oman are expected to sign a key Hormuz deal soon; no major wire in this feed carries that formulation. Saudi Arabia's pipeline bypass, already reported in the prior brief, remains offline per Al Jazeera, leaving limited alternative export capacity. President Pezeshkian, per a single unverified source, said keeping the strait open is conditional on the US halting what he described as a blockade, a claim not independently corroborated.

Recorded