12 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz and adjacent chokepoints face compounding pressure after Houthi forces seized control of Yemen's Red Sea coast and Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline that had served as the primary bypass route around the strait, per Al Jazeera and TradeWinds News. Whether the strait itself is open or closed remains contested: Iranian media this week declared it shut, while APPEC reporting carried by industry outlets notes that tankers are transiting in darkness and oil flows persist. This site's posture on carrier behavior leans cautious-closed, but the physical transit picture is unresolved. IMF PortWatch data for 2026-09-06, the most recent published day, recorded 6 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; that count is now six days old, and a lag of this length is expected given PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. At 02:56 UTC, 486 vessels were holding position away from berth, excluding hulls within 25 km of a working port. Brent stood at $104.42, down 3.20% over the prior 24 hours; futures markets are closed and that figure is unchanged since the last close, not a live trading signal. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure Index sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor. The Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, also flat, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the top driver. The two composites diverge: state pressure is extreme while the forward-looking forecast remains one band lower, at elevated. Separately, BBC News and Al Jazeera report Houthi forces have reached Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding a second chokepoint to the operational picture. AP News and World Oil report that Gulf states and Iran are weighing talks on reopening the strait; both parties must be named because the talks, if they occur, involve both.