24 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 1 transit on 2026-09-20 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. On the diplomatic front, Reuters and gCaptain report that 80 countries at the UN have demanded the strait be reopened and condemned Iran and Houthi attacks in the region. On the question of a bilateral framework, Reuters reports that US and Iranian envoys are discussing a phased deal to reopen the strait and lift the US blockade; Iran's security chief has said no step-by-step process exists and that the strait stays closed until Tehran's conditions, including an end to the blockade and the release of frozen assets, are met. Middle East Eye reports, citing a US official, that some 60 ships passed through the strait on Wednesday, while Reuters reports that shipping traffic via the strait stays lower than its 10-day average. The International Union of Marine Insurance, per Hellenic Shipping News, says insurers have lost billions covering war-risk premiums on energy shipments through the corridor despite a rise in headline rates. Separately, the attack on the bulk carrier Cape Dao on 2026-09-23, in which one seafarer was killed, remains in the news cycle; the attacker has not been identified by independent sources. Brent stood at $106.13, up 3.27% over 24 hours, as of 23:53 UTC. Forty-four events have been indexed in the last 24 hours. As of 23:49 UTC, 399 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, rising over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.

Recorded