24 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with IMF PortWatch recording 1 transit on 2026-09-20 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day, and 69 indexed events logged in the past 24 hours. Brent crude stood at $102.21 as of 02:56 UTC, a gain of 3.34% over 24 hours. The human toll at the strait continues to mount. Per gCaptain and Splash247, one seafarer was killed and 27 evacuated after the capesize Cape Dao was struck while transiting; that attack was reported in the prior brief. What is new: TradeWinds News and The Times of India report a separate cargo ship was hit, left on fire and adrift, with two casualties reported; that specific claim is not independently confirmed. Per gCaptain, one person was killed and 27 evacuated in an attack near the strait, consistent with the Cape Dao reporting. Iranian state media, cited by Shafaq News as a claim, put the number of ships diverted at 115, though that figure carries no independent corroboration. On the diplomatic track, Reuters, relayed by Al Jazeera, reports Iran is reviewing a US response on blockade talks. VOV World reports Iran and the United States have discussed conditions for reopening the strait. Per gCaptain and the Washington Examiner, French President Macron is pushing for a deal to open the strait, while refraining from blaming the Trump administration. No agreement between Iran and the United States has been reported in this window. As of 02:49 UTC, 339 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, rising over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, rising over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.