25 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of competing diplomatic signals. The Guardian reports Iran is awaiting a response from Trump on a proposal to open the strait within six days; The Guardian and Open Magazine carry that claim. Reuters reports US-Iran talks are focused on a phased deal to reopen the strait and lift the US economic blockade, a claim also carried by Reuters in separate coverage of the same diplomatic track. That diplomatic picture is complicated by Iran's security chief's prior statement, still standing, that no step-by-step process exists and that the strait stays closed until Tehran's conditions, including an end to the blockade and the release of frozen assets, are met. On throughput, Middle East Eye and EnergyNow.com report, per a US official, that some 60 ships passed through the strait on Wednesday, still well below the pre-crisis rate; IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-20, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent was at $105.80, up 3.50% over 24 hours, as of 02:48 UTC. At the UN General Assembly, gCaptain reports a coalition of 80 countries called for the strait's reopening. On the insurance side, Hellenic Shipping News reports, citing a senior International Union of Marine Insurance official, that marine insurers have lost billions covering war-risk exposures for Hormuz energy flows despite rising headline premium rates. The September 23 attack on the bulk carrier Cape Dao, in which an Indian sailor was killed per Indian and Omani authorities, remains the most recent casualty incident in this feed; the attacker has not been identified. As of 02:49 UTC, 407 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.