28 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 1 transit on 2026-09-20 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent's front-month contract last traded at $106.12 at 21:13 UTC. The day's main development was diplomatic: NBC News reports President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the strait and said the United States would win the war very soon, while Anadolu carried Iran's statement that Qatar will take Washington new ideas. NBC News also reported that eight U.S. Marines were hurt in an Iranian attack in the strait that had not been made public; because the attack took place about two weeks earlier, it doesn't change the current picture at the strait. The Maritime Executive reports Iran warned charterers that it will restrict their ships if they route vessels through the strait without its approval, and Reuters reports Qatar-linked LNG tanker traffic picked up despite the conflict. As of 21:00 UTC, 252 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure sits at 88 in the extreme band, set by physical transit deviation alone, and the Escalation Forecast sits at 54 in the elevated band.

Recorded