30 September 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains acutely dangerous for commercial shipping. The Maritime Executive and gCaptain report three vessels were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29. The attacker has not been identified. This follows the September 28 strike on the Kuwaiti supertanker Al Funtas, reported in the prior day's brief, and the September 23 death of a seafarer aboard the bulk carrier Cape Dao. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $97.68, up 1.58% over 24 hours, as of 22:47 UTC. On the diplomatic track, Iran is reviewing the US ceasefire counterproposal, per WKRC and KBOI, with Strait of Hormuz terms still unclear; this follows President Trump's public rejection on September 26 of Iran's seven-day plan, which had conditioned a strait reopening on sanctions relief and a US asset release. The Maritime Executive reports Iran's grip on strait traffic is loosening, while CNBC reports crude exports through the strait have hit prewar levels but fuel shipments remain constrained, adding that the recovery relies on US military protection of tankers in the Persian Gulf. Sixty-three events have been indexed in the last 24 hours. As of 23:50 UTC, 135 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, rising over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.