2 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under sustained pressure, with merchant shipping continuing to absorb projectile strikes and the US deepening its military posture in the region. The Roosevelt strike group deployment is part of a broader US military buildup reported by Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera and The Guardian report that vessel attacks have resumed even as, separately, finance.biggo.com reports Middle East crude exports have recovered to 80% of pre-war levels, a figure attributed to that outlet and not this site's own reading. Iranian state media, also carried by Türkiye Today, The Times of Israel, marineinsight.com, and OilPrice.com, claim Emirati tankers struck in the strait appeared on a non-compliance list; Iran's assertion that it may restrict ships from any charterer it deems non-compliant remains the stated policy backdrop. The attacker in each strike has not been identified by independent sources. Brent stood at $102.50, up 4.56% over 24 hours, as of 02:57 UTC. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. As of 02:50 UTC, 147 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.