2 October 2026.

Situation

Per gCaptain, Saudi Arabia is separately planning an offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen, with options including a coastal push to secure Red Sea shipping, citing regional and Western officials who spoke to Reuters. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $102.70 as of 23:55 UTC, up 0.33% in the last session before the close; futures are shut and that figure is unchanged since close. As of 23:50 UTC, 148 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, rising over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.