3 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central operational hazard for tanker operators, with the cumulative strike count now a contested figure at the centre of the morning's coverage. gCaptain reports at least six vessels have been struck since Sunday, though that tally is not independently confirmed in this feed. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Fifty-seven events have been indexed in the last 24 hours. Brent stood at $102.70, up 0.33% in the last session before the close, as of 02:51 UTC; futures are closed and that figure has not moved since the close. As of 02:50 UTC, 139 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, rising over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.