7 October 2026.

Situation

The product tanker Lipsi was hit in her engine room on 2026-10-05 and left drifting; that attack was first reported in this feed at 2026-10-05 09:55 UTC. CNBC reports that nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, have come under attack over the past month while sailing through the strait, the Persian Gulf, or off the coast of Oman. Brent stood at $101.43 as of 02:49 UTC, up 0.80% over 24 hours. IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on 2026-10-04, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Iraq, per Cyprus Shipping News citing INA, is seeking to buy crude tankers for shipments beyond the strait, though that report is single-source. As of 02:50 UTC, 206 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, easing over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.