8 October 2026.

Situation

A separate IRGC adviser statement holds that the strait will stay closed until Iran's seven conditions are met; US CentCom disputes the closure picture, saying 20 million barrels of crude are moving through. IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on October 4, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent crude stood at $102.12 as of 02:47 UTC, up 0.69 percent over the prior 24 hours; WTI stood at $89.69. As of 02:50 UTC, 145 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.