11 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 4 transits on October 4 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. The UK reports a tanker was struck by a projectile in the strait; no maritime authority has named who fired. Separately, Saba (the Houthi-run Yemeni state news agency) and WANA News Agency report that per the IRGC, a tanker caught fire after striking a sea mine; gCaptain reports that UAE authorities rescued 22 crew members after a fire aboard an oil tanker in Gulf waters. The mine claim originates with Iranian state media and has not been independently corroborated. US Central Command has previously disputed Iranian mine claims, saying it has cleared the primary lanes. On the policy side, Iran said on October 8 it would respond within days to Washington's reply to its seven-day plan; no response has been reported in this window. Brent settled at $104.72 at Friday's close, up 0.42% on the session; futures are shut. The feed indexed 27 headlines in the past 24 hours. Shipping companies are offering markedly elevated pay to crews willing to transit the strait, per Australian Broadcasting Corporation. As of 00:20 UTC, 139 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.