12 October 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with vessel throughput near zero: IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on October 4, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $103.63 as of 00:08 UTC, a decline of 1.04% over 24 hours. Separately, Iranian state media claim a supertanker struck a mine and caught fire in the southern strait; Mehr News, Saba, and WANA News Agency carry the claim, which no maritime authority has confirmed. On the Gem No.2, Splash247 reports attacks on commercial shipping are spreading deeper into the Gulf, with the Panama-flagged VLCC struck off the UAE as Iran widens its campaign beyond the strait. On negotiations, Iranian state media say the US reply to Iran's seven conditions for reopening the strait is insufficient; that deadlock carries no new movement in this window, as VOI.ID, Israel National News, and India Today all relay the same Iranian claim without adding fresh terms or a counter-proposal from either side. As of 00:20 UTC, 140 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.