12 November 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with IMF PortWatch recording 3 transits on 2026-11-08 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. The lead development is an unconfirmed claim by Iran's Revolutionary Guard that two supertankers carrying over four million barrels were disabled by explosions in the strait; Al Arabiya English, MarineLink, NewsNation, The New Region, and Jordan News are among the 18 outlets carrying the claim, which originates with the Revolutionary Guard and has not been confirmed by any maritime authority. An oil tanker grounding off Al Qibliyah Island is also being monitored, with Oman's National Emergency Management Committee discussing cargo operations, per gCaptain. On the diplomatic track, parliament speaker business-standard.com says the strait will never return to its pre-war status and that the ball is in the US court, per ANI News. Trump, in statements carried by Anadolu, says the US does not need a deal with Iran and claims US control of the strait. Canada reinstated sanctions against the National Iranian Tanker Company, reversing relief granted under the nuclear agreement, per Splash247. Brent stood at $93.49, up 0.34% over 24 hours, as of 14:44 UTC. This feed indexed 46 headlines in the past 24 hours. As of 14:30 UTC, 43 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port and is low because the AIS receivers are hearing fewer ships than usual, not because vessels left. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.