13 November 2026.

Situation

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-crisis levels, with IMF PortWatch recording 3 transits on November 8 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Iranian state media, via Tasnim, claim two more tankers caught fire after striking sea mines in the strait, a claim no maritime authority has confirmed. Per Iranian state media as relayed by NDTV, Iran says four oil tankers were hit by explosions and that ships ignored warnings; this originates with Iranian state media and has not been corroborated by an independent source. Separately, MarineLink reports that a vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile about 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al-Khaimah, reported on November 12, UAE, causing an engine-room fire, with all 22 crew of the Liberia-flagged tanker reported safe; the report cites British maritime agencies and gives no attacker. The Times of India, in a single-source report, says a merchant vessel was hit by a projectile near the UAE as it exited the strait. On the diplomatic track, Middle East Monitor and Anadolu Agency report that Trump says the US does not need a deal with Iran and claims control of the Strait of Hormuz, a position that tracks statements already in the public record from November 12. The IMO Secretary-General has called on member states to enforce maritime safety and security rules in and around the strait, per Hellenic Shipping News. Brent stood at $95.84, up 4.40% over 24 hours, as of 05:45 UTC. As of 06:00 UTC, 40 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port and is low because the AIS receivers are hearing fewer ships than usual, not because vessels left. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, rising over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.